European HRC prices flat: CBAM uncertainty brings imports to a standstill
HRC prices in Northern and Southern Europe remain flat amid weak demand. Market participants point to CBAM uncertainty and heavy pre-year-end stocking as key factors behind the stagnation.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in the European domestic market were largely unchanged on Monday, 13 January. Market sources from both Northern and Southern Europe reported weak demand, though they offered different views on the underlying causes.
Suppliers in Northern Europe offered HRC for March-April delivery at €650–670 per tonne ex-works. Some special volumes were offered at lower prices for February delivery, but quantities remained limited. Workable prices were reported at €630–635 per tonne ex-works; no orders were recorded during the day.
A trade source noted that service centres had maintained stocks above normal levels at the end of 2025. Behind this was the expectation that the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) would lead to price increases. The source attributed the post-holiday silence to this stockpiling.
Fastmarkets' Northern Europe domestic HRC index was set at €635.63 per tonne ex-works on 12 January. The index showed only a €0.63 increase from the previous day, while rising €5.63 week-on-week and €13.96 month-on-month.
A similar stagnation prevailed in the Italian market. No major deals were heard throughout the day. A local source said that behind the low demand were weak consumption, challenging economic conditions, and Europe's loss of competitiveness in export markets.
Buyers' workable price estimates ranged between €620–630 per tonne ex-works, while February and March delivery offers were heard in the €630–650 band depending on the supplier. Fastmarkets' Italy domestic HRC index was calculated at €627.50 per tonne on Monday — a €2.50 drop from the previous day. Week-on-week, the index rose €4.38, and month-on-month it gained €16.25.
The European import HRC market has reached a deadlock. Buyers face uncertainty regarding the new import mechanism following CBAM's entry into force on 1 January. One buyer said: "I don't think anyone knows whether actual values or default values will apply, or how much we'll have to pay."
On the import side, Indian-origin HRC was offered at $490–510 per tonne CFR, while Turkish material was quoted at $510 per tonne CFR.